Into an Uncertain Future? The EU and the Caucasus in 2040

 

2 - 6 March 2020 Baku/Azerbaijan

 

 

The Summer School was conducted at the Khazar University in cooperation with the University of Tübingen.

 

 

 

Project team:

 

Prof. Dr. Thomas Diez, Iris Rehklau, Sebastian Schäffer

Prof. Dr. Elmar Mustafayev

 

Project partners: 

 

Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe

 

 

The project was funded by the DAAD. 

 

Short Summary

The workshop aimed to develop scenarios for EU-Caucasus relations in 2040. The participants learned more about the other political systems and their respective challenges and also reflected on their own system and international behavior. In the development of future scenarios, this reflection lead to potentially transformative considerations. These are by no means one-sided, but also encouraged German participants, for example, to rethink the role of Germany and the EU in international politics as a whole and in relation to the Caucasus and Azerbaijan in particular.

The participants dealt with fundamental foreign policy positions and opportunities for cooperation in international politics in terms of content, practicality and dialogue. In doing so, they were able to better understand each other's position in order to use them to design and discuss scenarios for the future of EU-Caucasus relations.

 

Fundamental theories of international relations were discussed, both to question one's own positions and to open up different future scenarios. The emphasis on classic realistic aspects (influence of great powers, energy, raw materials, territorial conflicts) stands in the way of transformative approaches that emphasize the influence of norms and institutional embedding. This raises questions about the future relevance of oil and gas deposits or the unchangeability of territorial conflicts on the one hand and the supposed "normative" power of the EU and its institutional capacities (for example in the Eastern Partnership within the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy). The role of Russia must also not be forgotten.

 

The workshop consisted of three main blocs:

(1) an intercultural competence workshop to facilitate communication across cultural divides;

(2) a teaching bloc on the EU-Caucasus relations;

(3) a group exercise to develop scenarios for EU - South Caucasus relations in 2040.

 

 

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Diez, Thomas/Mustafayev, Elmar/Rehklau, Iris/Schäffer, Sebastian (eds.) - FUTURE SCENARIOS: INTO AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE? THE EU AND THE CAUCASUS IN 2040
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